AGP Executive Report

Milk supply shock: Bomet, Kenya is facing an acute milk shortage, with spot checks showing prices rising from about Sh50 to Sh100 per litre as deliveries plunge from over 1,000 litres/day to under 200, blamed on costly dairy feed and prolonged dry weather. Dairy sector risk: Vendors warn the drought-and-feed squeeze could push farmers to abandon milk production unless El Niño rains restore pasture. Industrial push in food & beverage: Ethiopia says targeted policy measures have lifted manufacturing capacity utilization beyond 69%, citing fixes to electricity, water, capital and raw-material constraints, plus import substitution gains across food and beverage. Tanganda setback: Zimbabwe’s Tanganda Tea faces weaker near-term performance as its major shareholder flags poor avocado and macadamia harvest yields. Consumer pressure in groceries: South Africa reports households making more grocery trips but buying fewer packs per trip, with FMCG value up while volume growth stays modest—pointing to tighter budgets and more selective baskets. Food safety alarm: Nigeria’s agbo herbal-concoction deaths highlight calls for stronger regulation and public warnings against unadvised herbal mixtures. Hospitality & food culture: DJ Zinhle opens an Era store in Newcastle, KwaZulu-Natal, while South Africa’s koe’sister variations and Uber Eats’ 10-year ordering trends underline how food habits keep evolving.

Delivery & consumer habits: Uber Eats marks 10 years in South Africa, with pap and fried chicken topping orders, while tastes vary by city (Cape Town leans sushi; Durban grilled chicken; Joburg burgers and PERi-PERi). Household budgets: Worldpanel by Numerator finds South Africans are shopping more often but buying fewer packs per trip, with FMCG value up but volume growth slower as consumers get selective. Food safety & fraud: Lagos State warns over adulteration risks, flagging Sudan/Azo dyes, recycled cooking oil and multi-adulterant mixes in palm oil. Illicit alcohol: Kenya’s Patiala Distillers denies social-media claims of counterfeit products, pointing to its licensed operations and urging reports of suspicious drinks. Public health scare: Nigeria’s “agbo” herbal concoction deaths keep rising, with kidney-disease links and calls for better regulation and citizen caution. Cross-border pricing shock: A Zimbabwe visitor says KFC meals cost far more in US dollars than expected after conversion to rands, sparking debate. Climate & sugar: El Niño threatens global sugar supply, shifting forecasts from glut to deficit and lifting prices. Hospitality culture: South Africa’s hospitality heritage is spotlighted as Unilever links cleanliness and guest care to operational demands. Food culture at home: Koe’sisters get five new twists (including rooibos and candied apple) from ANEW Hotels & Resorts.

Alcohol Crackdown: Kenya’s Patiala Distillers K Limited denies social-media claims that it makes or sells counterfeit alcohol, saying it is a licensed manufacturer in Mlolongo, Machakos County, and urging consumers to report suspicious products to authorities. Food Safety Alert: Gauteng Education MEC Lebogang Maile calls for urgent police and health investigations after pupils reportedly bought and consumed “scrubs,” saying claims about its contents are unverified and must be scientifically tested. Staple Prices Watch (Lagos): A market survey shows September 2026 food prices in Lagos easing overall, with more items falling month-on-month as harvest inflows improve, though egusi, tomatoes and vegetable oil rose. Coffee Sector Spotlight: FAO marks International Coffee Day, stressing resilience for smallholder farmers through sustainable, climate-smart production and better access to innovation. Ebola Impact on Food Systems (Congo): Congo’s Ebola outbreak has surpassed 4,000 deaths, with authorities warning that insecurity and community cooperation challenges are complicating containment. Hospitality & Pay Debate (SA): A viral payslip showing a restaurant manager earning R28,000 gross with “Grade 12” listed reignites questions about qualifications and pay gaps in the sector.

Tourism & Hospitality: Club Med’s R2bn Tinley Manor Beach & Safari mega-resort in KZN is set to test whether luxury tourism becomes real local economic lift—especially for SMMEs and workers—after drawing guests from 30+ countries. Food Safety Alert: South Africa’s Gauteng Education MEC has demanded urgent police and scientific testing over “scrubs” allegedly bought and eaten by pupils, after the department couldn’t verify source or contents. Coffee Costs: As International Coffee Day hits on 1 October, South Africa data shows instant coffee prices up sharply (62.6% since Aug 2022) while overall food inflation stays lower—yet millions keep drinking. Digital Delivery & Jobs: Uber Eats marks 10 years in South Africa, claiming R1.6bn extra value for restaurants and 12.7m hours saved for consumers, while highlighting township partnerships. Packaging & Circularity: South Africa’s metal packaging push stresses aluminium and tinplate recycling streams and correct separation to keep value in the circular economy. Fast Food Performance: Simbisa Brands reports 20% group revenue growth for FY ended June 2026, with Zimbabwe still the biggest market and delivery orders surging.

Food inflation watch (South Africa): BFAP reports August food inflation rose to 1.1% year-on-year (from 0.9% in July) and 0.1% month-on-month, with the biggest annual pressure in fish & seafood (+7.5%), NAB (+4.9%), oils & fats (+2.6%), dairy & eggs (+2.1%), sugar (+2.0%) and meat (+1.5%). Beverage packaging expansion (East Africa): Guala Closures has completed its acquisition of Metal Crowns across Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi for KES 10.6bn (US$81.7m), boosting its beverage-closure footprint in fast-growing markets. RTD alcohol push (Varun Beverages): Varun Beverages’ new Kiva Spirits subsidiary is in advanced talks to acquire Alcobrew Distilleries India, potentially valuing the target at Rs 2,000–2,500 crore, to build an RTD-focused alcohol portfolio. Coffee pricing spotlight (South Africa): New consumer data for International Coffee Day shows coffee prices still running above the wider food basket, with instant coffee inflation at 5.6% and category growth of 57% since mid-2022. Corporate/industry notes: Hershey appoints Amanda Almond as international president from 12 Oct 2026; and Promasidor Nigeria reiterates its nutrition and local dairy investment push for Nigeria’s 66th Independence Anniversary.

Health Taxes Push in Nigeria: The NHIA is accelerating health tax reform, framing it as key to sustainable financing and curbing non-communicable diseases linked to sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and alcohol, while stakeholders also urge clearer public communication on how revenues will be used. EU Agribusiness Investment: The EU’s AgriFI backs Tomato Jos Inc. with $2.5m to expand tomato processing, climate-smart production and smallholder sourcing in northern Nigeria. Coffee Waste to Value in Ethiopia: Ethiopia is commercializing coffee husks into Hashara, a fruity, tea-like drink, turning farm byproducts into new income. Illicit Alcohol Crackdown (Kenya): NACADA and partners dismantled a counterfeit alcohol and contraband cigarette network in Meru, seizing thousands of bottles and 900+ cigarette packets. Food Prices & Cost Pressure (Kenya): September inflation rose to 6.8% as food and transport costs climbed, with wheat flour, milk, beef and vegetables among the drivers. Healthy Menu Rules (Abu Dhabi): A new mandate requires hotel and restaurant menus to include minimum healthy options, with children’s menus needing at least half healthy items. Industry & Trade: TEI 2026 in Indonesia targets US$17.5bn with 1,533 exhibitors and buyers including Nigeria among top foreign sources. Restaurant & Hospitality Notes: Ethiopia’s coffee culture gets a boost via Hashara, while Abu Dhabi tightens healthy dining standards and Nigeria debates health-tax messaging.

Agri-Deal in Nigeria: UAC of Nigeria will exit Livestock Feeds Plc, selling its 73.29% stake to Sunbeth Treenuts and Sesame for an all-cash N19.5bn deal, valuing shares at N8.85 each and subject to approvals. Health Taxes & Food Policy: Nigeria’s NHIA and Senate pushed for stronger health tax reforms, citing rising non-communicable diseases linked to sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and alcohol. School Nutrition Shock (SA): An eNCA investigation alleges Gauteng learners were served “lalaza” reused fryer oil from a black-market supply chain, sparking outrage over the R11bn National School Nutrition Programme. Inflation Watch (SA): South Africa’s producer inflation cooled sharply to 5% in August as food prices eased, though fuel risks remain. Beer Growth (East Africa): Asahi says it will use premium beer brands (including Asahi Super Dry and Peroni) to grow in Kenya via its majority investment in EABL. Regulation & Compliance (Kenya): Kenya’s push to formalise foreign-run small businesses is raising costs for mid-sized operators through licences, taxes, payroll deductions and immigration fees. New Juice in Zimbabwe: Varun Beverages Zimbabwe launched Mooju dairy-blend juice and also secured exclusive distribution for Mondelez confectionery from Oct 1. Food Fortification Debate (Nigeria): CAPPA warned mandatory bouillon cube fortification could undermine sodium-reduction efforts and encourage ultra-processed consumption.

Hospitality Expansion: Aleph Hospitality says it has secured 1,330 keys across nine properties in six countries this year, adding deals in Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania and Ivory Coast, plus a Dubai management takeover as it targets 100 hotels by end-2029. Hotel Growth in the Region: Radisson Hotel Group highlights momentum across Middle East and Northeast Africa with new signings, openings and conversions, pointing to demand from business, leisure and religious travel. Alcohol Crackdown: Kenya’s Kirinyaga County launches a 14-day crackdown on illicit alcohol, counterfeit drinks and drug abuse, with police, KRA and standards bodies and plans to involve residents in bar licensing. Brewing & Exports Watch: Namibia Breweries faces export reset risks after Heineken’s minimum volume commitment lapsed, with liquidity and dividend policy concerns following a 22.7% profit drop. Sugar Trade Pressure: The US increases South Africa’s raw cane sugar quota by 6.3%, as growers warn imports are displacing local supply and domestic sales fall. Food Retail Competition: South Africa’s fast-food market grows, but chains face tougher competition from supermarkets, forecourts and smaller ready-to-eat options. Sustainability Forum: Nigeria’s NCC, NDPC, FBRA and MTN confirm participation in Africa Sustainability Forum 2026 in Lagos, focusing on just transitions, green growth and circular economy. Food System Debate: A commentary argues chemical-heavy modern food systems are making global food systems more fragile, calling for a rethink of processing and farming practices.

Food Policy & Nutrition: Nigeria’s CAPPA marks World Heart Day by warning against mandatory bouillon fortification, saying it could worsen an ultra-processed food environment and undermine efforts to curb diet-related disease. Beverage Industry: Capri-Sun Group removes CEO Roland Weening, ending more than a decade at the Swiss beverage maker, with operations continuing under existing executives and chairman Hans-Peter Wild. Regulation & Litigation: Red Bull challenges India’s FSSAI in Delhi High Court over a ban on the “energy drink” label, arguing the move was procedurally unfair and threatens its investments. Agri-Food Trade & Investment: Cameroon and Indonesia will hold a second Indonesia-Cameroon Business Forum in Yaounde in October, targeting partnerships in agriculture, manufacturing, transport and industrial development. Market & Jobs Watch: South Africa’s formal sector shed 123,000 jobs in H1 2026, with manufacturing among the biggest losers, while real earnings still fell. Consumer & Supply Chain: South Africans hunt for last ProNutro boxes after PepsiCo discontinued production, while a long-running Ethiopian restaurant in Tempe, Arizona, abruptly closed—highlighting how quickly food businesses can disappear.

Restaurant Openings & Dining Culture: French chef Gregoire Berger debuts Solenn in Abu Dhabi, a relaxed Mediterranean spot built around long lunches and a slower pace, after his Ossiano and Kraken Dubai stints. Coffee Retail Expansion: Luckin Coffee marks a major milestone with its 100th Singapore store, showing how Chinese coffee chains scale overseas systems. Trade Barriers: Korea’s food exporters say tariffs, customs rules, food regulations, safety requirements and supply-chain constraints are still blocking K-food growth abroad. Food Policy & Health: University of Ghana nutrition professor Anna Lartey urges taxes on unhealthy foods, tighter ads for junk/ultra-processed products aimed at children, and stronger front-of-pack labels. Women’s Finance: AfDB’s AFAWA launches a learning event to boost women entrepreneurs’ access to finance and digital growth across Africa. Illicit Alcohol Crackdown (Nigeria): Nigeria’s spirits and wines industry warns illicit trade is costing government ₦428bn annually, pushing for tougher, more coordinated enforcement. Agri-Food Sustainability Risks: A sustainability roundup flags underestimated threats beyond carbon—like seafood species bias—looming over global food supply.

EU-backed agribusiness push: The EU’s AgriFI has committed $2.5m to Nigeria’s Tomato Jos to expand tomato processing, climate-smart production and smallholder sourcing in Kaduna, including women farmers. Beverage supply chain watch: The US partially lifted antidumping/countervailing duties on qualifying aluminium can stock from India (for beverage cans, lids and tabs), easing input costs for can makers. Brewing cost pressure: Heineken says rising fuel costs tied to the Iran war are lifting brewing input costs in Asia, with much of the inflation being passed to consumers. Coca-Cola consumer promo: Coca-Cola Beverages Africa in Namibia says 20 consumers have already won N$5,000 each in its 2026 Under-the-Cap promotion, with more prizes planned through December. Food safety enforcement: Akwa Ibom police arrested a 40-year-old over alleged production and distribution of fake dry gin, recovering five cartons. Hospitality investment: Uganda will host FHS Africa in Feb 2027 in Kampala to attract hotel and tourism infrastructure investment. Security and food venues: South Africa saw multiple deadly shootings near pubs and a barbecue restaurant, underscoring risks around nightlife and dining areas.

Brewing Costs: Heineken says Iran-linked fuel price pressure is lifting brewing input costs in Asia, passing on about 70–80% of inflation to consumers while using productivity and revenue management to absorb the rest. Hospitality Expansion: IHG opened voco Nairobi Airport Suites, its debut in Kenya/East Africa, with 112 suites, multiple dining spots and meeting space aimed at transit and longer-stay travellers. Winelands Food & Drink Events: South Africa’s Franschhoek Cap Classique & Champagne Festival returns 5–6 Dec at the Huguenot Monument, adding curated non-alcoholic sparkling options alongside top Cap Classique and French Champagne. Nigeria Food Investment: Nigeria’s food, beverage and tobacco sector drew N375.03bn in fresh investment in 2025, up 63.5%, led by major manufacturers and concentrated in Lagos and Ogun. Food Safety & Alcohol: Ogun authorities say a woman was caught smuggling ethanol disguised as bottled water into a custodial centre, while separate reporting highlights ongoing methanol-alcohol risks and calls for stronger regulator accountability. Trade Policy: The US partially lifted antidumping/countervailing duties on qualifying aluminium can stock from India, affecting beverage-can inputs. Community & Culture: Zambia’s gastronomy awards urged stakeholders to invest in local produce and talent to grow the country’s food culture and tourism.

Food Safety Alarm (Nigeria): Ondo State’s methanol poisoning crisis has killed 48 people, with NAFDAC pointing to dangerously high methanol levels in locally prepared alcoholic and herbal drinks—raising hard questions about monitoring, testing, and early-warning systems after a similar 2015 outbreak. Industry Push (Zambia): The Hotel and Catering Association of Zambia urged stakeholders to invest in people and local produce to grow the gastronomy sector, spotlighting winners at the Zambia Gastronomy Awards. Food Manufacturing (Saudi Arabia): The Saudifood Show and Saudifood Manufacturing 2026 opened in Jeddah, bringing 1,000+ exhibitors from 95 countries across the full F&B value chain to boost food security and local production. Nutrition & Affordability (Nigeria): A policy-focused piece argues Nigeria must shift from producing more food to making nutritious diets affordable and accessible amid high food inflation. Sugar Sector Reform (Zimbabwe): Parliament recommends amending sugar controls, reviewing proceeds formulas, and recapitalising rail to support the sugar value chain, alongside water/power priorities and fortification steps. Tobacco Regulation (Kenya): Tobacco farmers in Tharaka-Nith and Meru oppose parts of the Tobacco-Control (Amendment) Bill 2024, especially controls on synthetic nicotine products. Counterfeit Alcohol Crackdown (Nigeria): Ogun correctional officers arrested a woman for smuggling ethanol disguised as bottled water into a custodial centre.

Sugar Reform Push (Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe’s parliamentary committee urges amendments to the 1964 Sugar Production Control Act, a review of the Division of Proceeds formula, and recapitalisation of National Railways—plus water/power priorities and out-grower financing—to protect the sugar value chain’s competitiveness. Beverage Investment (Nigeria): Coca-Cola says it will add $1bn to Nigeria over five years, citing a 2024 socio-economic study showing ~160,200 livelihoods supported and $601m added to the economy, with heavy local supplier spend. Competition & Bottling Deal (Africa): Coca-Cola HBC’s progress on its African bottling expansion continues, with South Africa’s competition body recommending approval of the CCBA transaction subject to conditions. Confectionery Distribution (Zimbabwe): Varun Beverages Zimbabwe signs an exclusive Mondelez distribution deal from Oct 1, 2026 for chocolate, biscuits, candy and gum. Public Health (Nigeria): Experts warn Nigeria’s junk food, sugary drinks, alcohol, tobacco and drugs are driving a rising non-communicable disease burden. Food Policy (South Africa): Parliament calls for sugar industry reforms within two years. Restaurant/Drink Culture: London’s Quaglino’s reopens after refurbishment; Nigeria’s street-food boom is opening new fronts for beverage brands.

Beverage Investment & Jobs (Nigeria): Coca-Cola says it will invest an additional $1bn in Nigeria over five years, citing a 2024 socio-economic study that estimates 160,200 livelihoods supported and $601m in value-added activity, with $601m spent annually on local suppliers. Beverage Deal (Zimbabwe): Varun Beverages Zimbabwe signs an exclusive Mondelez distribution agreement for chocolate, biscuits, candy and gum from Oct 1, 2026, using its existing network. Food Safety (Nigeria): Nigeria’s Ondo methanol outbreak is again under scrutiny after NAFDAC confirmed 48 deaths and 182 cases, with methanol detected in samples and arrests tied to production and sale. Alcohol Regulation (South Africa): Stakeholders back an 11-point draft National Alcohol Regulations passage, as policy pressure grows around how alcohol is sold and controlled. Hospitality & Skills (Nigeria): London-based chef Adejoke Bakare brings her Chishuru cooking to Lagos Continental Hotel for four exclusive dinners (Nov 4–7), with a menu built for Lagos ingredients and training younger chefs. Agri-food Trade (Valencia, Spain): Valencia’s agri-food exports hit €6,219.7m Jan–Jul 2026, showing strong export weight and a positive trade balance.

Alcohol Regulation Push (Ghana): Ghana’s alcohol-control stakeholders adopted an 11-point declaration urging government to fast-track the draft National Alcohol Regulations to Parliament within six months, alongside higher excise taxes and stronger enforcement of limits on alcohol advertising. Food Safety & Labelling (India): FSSAI proposed a single-phase front-of-pack warning label system for foods high in added sugar, fat or salt, using a red hexagon/white square format and considering moving non-caloric sweetener warnings to the front. Counterfeit Alcohol Crackdown (Nigeria): Police in Lagos uncovered a fake wine factory in Badagry and arrested a suspect, as separate reports also highlight raids seizing counterfeit alcohol bottles. Trade Dispute (Kenya–South Africa): Kenya’s High Court rejected Wow Beverages’ bid to block Namaqua Wines’ distribution deal termination, saying the alleged exclusivity wasn’t formalised in a written contract. Hospitality & Nigerian Cuisine (Lagos): Michelin-star chef Adejoke Bakare will run four exclusive Chishuru dinners at Lagos Continental Hotel (4–7 Nov), tailoring a menu to Lagos ingredients and culinary culture. Consumer Pressure (South Africa): South Africans are cutting back on takeaways, dining out and other non-essentials as cost-of-living strain persists.